Global Trade, Tariffs, and Customs: Key Changes in 2025 and the Outlook Ahead
The year 2025 marked a significant turning point in global trade policy. Governments around the world moved away from predictable, low-tariff frameworks and toward a more assertive use of tariffs, trade laws, and customs enforcement as policy tools. These changes affected not only trade costs, but also compliance obligations, supply-chain planning, and long-term business strategy.
One of the most notable developments was the shift in U.S. trade policy. Tariffs became a central instrument once again, rather than a temporary negotiating tactic. The United States imposed broader and higher tariffs across multiple sectors, raising the average effective tariff rate to levels not seen in decades. While some proposed measures were adjusted or delayed, the overall direction remained consistent: tariffs are now a structural part of U.S. trade policy rather than an exception. This has increased costs for importers and introduced greater uncertainty into long-term pricing and sourcing decisions.
Alongside these tariff changes, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) expanded its enforcement role. New rules and guidance emphasized stricter valuation, classification, country-of-origin determinations, and eligibility for exemptions. The reduction and tightening of de minimis treatment for low-value shipments significantly affected e-commerce and high-volume importers. In practice, CBP has signaled that compliance expectations are higher, audits are more targeted, and penalties for errors are more likely. For businesses, this means customs compliance is no longer a back-office function but a core operational risk area.
Internationally, China also made important legal and policy moves. Throughout 2025, China responded to foreign tariff actions with its own trade remedies, including high provisional duties on specific imports. Most notably, China revised its Foreign Trade Law, effective March 1, 2026. This revision provides the Chinese government with broader legal authority to manage trade disputes, restrict sensitive exports, and promote strategic industries such as digital and green trade. This change signals a more formalized and law-based approach to trade retaliation and control, rather than ad-hoc responses.
The European Union continued advancing non-traditional trade measures that function similarly to tariffs. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) progressed toward full implementation, effectively placing a carbon-based cost on certain imported goods. While framed as an environmental measure, CBAM has clear trade and pricing implications and represents a broader trend: regulatory policy is increasingly shaping trade outcomes, even when tariffs are not explicitly named as such.
Taken together, these developments reflect a broader shift in how governments view trade. Trade policy in 2025 was used not only to manage imports and exports, but also to address domestic economic concerns, national security priorities, environmental goals, and geopolitical relationships. For businesses, this means trade risk is no longer limited to tariffs alone. Legal changes, enforcement practices, and regulatory requirements now play an equally important role.